NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index for October Falls Slightly

Wednesday, November 11th, 2026 -- 11:01 AM

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October was 97.8, down 0.1 points from September and slightly below the 53-year average of 98.0.

The Uncertainty Index fell 6 points from September to 84, the lowest level since December 2025.“There was little change in optimism among small businesses in October as owners navigated enduring challenges, though there were some encouraging developments,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

“Even with inflation pressures continuing to strain operations, more Main Street owners reported their businesses in good or excellent health, and actual sales improved. Looking ahead, continued strength in consumer spending will support economic growth, while persistent inflation, labor shortages, and policy risks will weigh on the small business outlook.”

"Wisconsin's small businesses remain resilient as they navigate a challenging economic environment,” said NFIB Wisconsin State Director Luke Bacher. “Although uncertainty has moderated and owners are feeling somewhat better about future business conditions, many continue to struggle with hiring qualified workers and managing high costs."

"Addressing those challenges during the next legislative session will be essential to ensuring Main Street businesses can continue to grow and create jobs throughout Wisconsin."

Key findings of the October survey include:

• The percent of small business owners reporting the quality or availability of labor as their top operating problem decreased 1 point to 25%, making it the top reported issue for the fourth consecutive month. The current reading is 13 points above the historical average of 12%.
• The second top issue in October was taxes, which rose notably from September. Twenty-one percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up 10 points from September and the highest level since May 2021.
• Small business owners’ self-evaluation of the health of their business shifted positively, with more reporting their business as excellent and good rather than fair. When asked to evaluate the overall health of their business, 15% rated it as excellent (up 2 points), 54% as good (up 6 points), 26% as fair (down 9 points), and 4% as poor (unchanged).
• In October, expectations for better business conditions improved, after two months of deterioration. A net 8% (seasonally adjusted) of owners expect better business conditions over the next six months, up 2 points from September and still above its average.
• Eleven percent (seasonally adjusted) reported that it is a good time to expand their business, up 4 points from September.
• A seasonally adjusted 36% of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 4 points from September and 12 points above the historical average.
• The two inventory components of the Optimism Index both downshifted, with the net percent with inventory “too low" falling 3 points to a net –3%, and planned inventory investments sliding 3 points as well to a net –1%.
• Inflation pressures grew in October as both price measures increased. A seasonally adjusted net 33% of owners reported raising average selling prices (up 2 points), and a net 37% plan to increase prices, up 6 points from September and the highest level since July 2022.
• In October, a net 13% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, up 5 points from September. This is the highest level since August 2024.

As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, hiring activity increased among small businesses, with plans to create jobs rising 1 point to 18% (seasonally adjusted) and the percent of owners reporting hiring or trying to hire in October increasing 5 points to 56%.

However, 86% of those hiring reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill.

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