With New State Legislative Maps, Assembly and the Senate Up for Grabs According to Experts

Friday, February 23rd, 2024 -- 2:00 PM

(Rich Kremer, Wisconsin Public Radio) For the first time in more than 50 years, the state Legislature and governor reached a bipartisan agreement on new legislative maps, one that could substantially shift the balance of political power in Wisconsin.

According to Rich Kremer with Wisconsin Public Radio, the new maps were drawn by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and passed by Republican lawmakers, who said they’d have a better shot at maintaining their majorities with the governor’s district lines than under other options that were being considered by the Wisconsin Supreme Court’s liberal majority.

With the maps now signed into law, all eyes are on the November election to see how new district lines affect who the voters of Wisconsin send to Madison to represent them.

In a nutshell, redistricting experts hired by the court said Evers’ maps are slightly “tilted toward the Republicans” but competitive enough that “the party that wins the most votes will win the most seats” in the Legislature.

Since 2011, that hasn’t been the case in Wisconsin. Under Republican maps drawn that year, and refined in 2021, the GOP majority in the Wisconsin Assembly has swelled to 64-35, a near-supermajority.

Using data from Wisconsin’s 2022 elections, Marquette University Law School Research Fellow John Johnson utilized computer modeling to measure the number of Assembly seats leaning in Republicans’ or Democrats’ favors under the new maps.

His data shows 42 assembly districts favoring Democrats by more than 10 percentage points and another four seats favoring Democrats by single digits. It also shows 46 Assembly seats favoring Republicans by more than 10 percentage points, with seven additional seats favoring Republicans by single digits.

In order to win an Assembly majority this November, Johnson said, Democrats would have to win all seats leaning in their favor under the new maps along with seven seats with a slight Republican lean.

The most likely targets, he said, include the 61st Assembly District in Milwaukee’s suburbs, the 88th and 89th Districts in the Green Bay Area,  the 85th District in Wausau or the 30th District in Hudson. But, Johnson stressed, the past is not a prologue.

He said Wisconsin’s 2022 election results do not predict what might happen this fall. Republicans currently hold 22 out of 33 state Senate seats, a two-thirds supermajority. And while GOP lawmakers could lose some seats in 2024, their majority is likely very safe.

Unlike representatives, who are elected every two years, senators serve four-year terms, and their elections are staggered. That means even-numbered districts will be up for election in November and odd-numbered districts will be on the ballot in 2026.

Johnson said because only half of the districts will be contested this year, he essentially sees no chance of Democrats gaining a majority in that chamber this go-round. But 2026 could be a different story.

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