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Even With Improvement to State Economy, Analysts Says 'Vibes Still Feel Off"

Thursday, January 25th, 2024 -- 12:00 PM

(Ricardo Torres, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) The 2023 economy surprised analysts and observers, in a positive way.

Inflation was high but came down. Unemployment stayed low. And companies were hiring. But it doesn’t seem like people feel the economy is in a good place. “The vibes have just felt off,” said Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist for Baird.

“And the vibes have felt off because they’ve been told there's an imminent recession, and they see high prices, there’s geopolitical conflicts, and all of these things tend to weigh on consumer’s minds even though the data says that things are slowly improving.” Analysts were predicting a recession last year but it never came. And the chances of a recession this year are mixed.

Brent Schute, chief investment officer for Northwestern Mutual, said the economy has done better than expected in the final few months of 2023 but he thinks “there’s going to be more volatility in the coming weeks, in the coming months as we figure out whether or not it is a soft landing or it is a recession.”

“It’s incredibly hard to get timing exactly right, especially in this cycle because it’s been so odd,” Schute said. “What I am comfortable in saying is the U.S. economy is late in the business cycle."

"And later in a business cycle you want to be more careful, and you want to make sure you have your finances in order, that you’re comfortable with how your assets are allocated and that you’re prepared for the reality that you could have down markets because of a recession.” 

But Schute does think a recession is coming in 2024. “We have had rolling recessions, which I think, take the sting out of overall recessions,” Schute said. “I think it will be a very mild recession... I don’t expect anything like ‘07 to ‘09.”

Last fall a Marquette Law School poll found only 27% of those surveyed would describe the economy as "good" or excellent" versus 73% who describe it as "not so good" or "poor." “We have had rolling recessions, which I think, take the sting out of overall recessions,” Schute said.

“I think it will be a very mild recession... I don’t expect anything like ‘07 to ‘09.” Last fall a Marquette Law School poll found only 27% of those surveyed would describe the economy as "good" or excellent" versus 73% who describe it as "not so good" or "poor."


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